MSD against 11 peers, from the public ClinicalTrials.gov registry as it stood on 14 October 2026. A commercial-analytics case study by Mohammad Uzair Khan.
MSD has the second-largest trial pipeline of 12, and the most concentrated on one molecule
238 active studies in Phase 1 to 3, behind only AstraZeneca. 71 of the 201 at Phase 2 or later involve pembrolizumab, a higher share than any peer has on one molecule. Every count below traces to a registry record.
MSD's 238 active pipeline studies, by phase
- Involves pembrolizumab (71 of 201 at Phase 2 or later)
- Other studies
Select a mark to see its registry record.
- 238active pipeline studies, second of 12 after AstraZeneca's 387. 106 are late-stage.
- 35.3%of MSD's 201 studies that reach Phase 2 or 3 involve pembrolizumab. The next company's top molecule is 26.3%.
- $417Mof 2025 Medicaid spend on Januvia and Janumet, whose core protection ends in November 2026. MSD has 0 active late-stage diabetes studies.
- 31late-stage studies due to finish by September 2028. 67 for AstraZeneca.
- 0.23%of MSD's pipeline studies list a site in a Gulf state: 5 studies, the smallest share of the 12.
MSD has 238 active pipeline studies, second to AstraZeneca's 387; 106 are late-stage
An active pipeline study is an interventional drug, biological, genetic or combination-product study in Phase 1 to 3 that is recruiting, not yet recruiting, enrolling by invitation or active but not recruiting. Counts are studies the company itself leads.
Active pipeline studies by company and phase
- Phase 1
- Phase 2 (including 1/2)
- Late stage (Phase 3 and 2/3)
- MSD is drawn in berry, in the same three steps
Where the studies are: MSD against the median of the 11 peers
Share of each company's active pipeline studies in each therapeutic area
- MSD
- Median of the 11 peers
35.3% of MSD's studies at Phase 2 or later involve pembrolizumab, the highest share of the 12; the next is 26.3%
For each company, the share of its active studies that reach Phase 2 or 3 (counting Phase 1/2) which involve its single most frequent molecule. Chemotherapy backbones, steroids and generic comparators are set aside first, so a drug such as carboplatin is not mistaken for a pipeline. A study can involve more than one molecule, so shares do not add up.
Share of Phase 2 and 3 studies on the top molecule
MSD's five most frequent molecules
Who leads the 1,363 active pembrolizumab studies
Two measures sit on this page and they differ on purpose. The 71 counted above are studies at Phase 2 or later where pembrolizumab is one of the interventions. The 84 Keytruda-linked studies in the revenue table below count every active phase and match Merck's product list by name, development code or brand.
$417M of 2025 Medicaid spend sits on Januvia and Janumet, whose core protection ends in November 2026
Revenue here is US Medicaid pharmacy spend before rebates, from the sibling project Rx Market Pulse. It is a signal of scale, not company revenue. Protection dates are the FDA Orange Book core dates; a biologic such as Keytruda has none, and none is invented for it.
Protection ending by 2028, set beside the late-stage pipeline in the same area
$456M of 2025 Medicaid spend across the three areas
| Area | Products and core protection ends | 2025 Medicaid spend | MSD active late-stage studies | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diabetes & obesity | Januvia (Nov 2026), Janumet (Nov 2026) | $417M | 0 | 1.0 |
| Pain, addiction & anesthesia | Bridion (Jun 2028) | $21.8M | 0 | 0.0 |
| Infectious disease (non-HIV) | Dificid (Jul 2027) | $17.7M | 8 | 0.0 |
Merck's 14 product families in Rx Market Pulse, and the active studies that match them
| Product | Area | 2025 Medicaid spend | Core protection ends | Active studies | Late-stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keytruda | Oncology | $892M | Biologic, no Orange Book date | 84 | 42 |
| Januvia | Diabetes & obesity | $320M | November 2026 | 0 | 0 |
| Winrevair | Cardiovascular | $231M | Biologic, no Orange Book date | 6 | 2 |
| Janumet | Diabetes & obesity | $96.9M | November 2026 | 0 | 0 |
| Steglatro | Diabetes & obesity | $85.7M | December 2031 | 0 | 0 |
| Prevymis | Infectious disease (non-HIV) | $45.6M | August 2031 | 1 | 0 |
| Welireg | Oncology | $42M | September 2034 | 21 | 8 |
| Isentress | HIV | $36.7M | June 2030 | 0 | 0 |
| Pifeltro | HIV | $23.1M | August 2032 | 5 | 4 |
| Belsomra | Neurology & psychiatry | $22.6M | November 2029 | 1 | 1 |
| Bridion | Pain, addiction & anesthesia | $21.8M | June 2028 | 0 | 0 |
| Delstrigo | HIV | $18.4M | August 2032 | 5 | 4 |
| Dificid | Infectious disease (non-HIV) | $17.7M | July 2027 | 0 | 0 |
| Zerbaxa | Infectious disease (non-HIV) | $7.9M | May 2034 | 0 | 0 |
31 MSD late-stage studies are due to finish by September 2028; AstraZeneca has 67
Late-stage active studies whose estimated primary completion falls in the 24 months from the data month. A primary completion date is when the last participant is examined for the main outcome. It is not when results are announced, and estimated dates slip.
MSD's late-stage studies by quarter of estimated primary completion
Select a mark to see its registry record.
Late-stage readouts due in 24 months, by company
MSD started 86 studies in 2025 against a peer median of 52
A start counts when the registry gives a start date that is not an estimate. 2026 is a part year, and registrations arrive late, so it is shown as a year to date and left out of the forecast history.
Pipeline studies started each year, with a forecast
- MSD
- Median of the 11 peers
- Range of the forecast (dashed lines are forecasts)
- 2026 to date
Share of finished studies that were terminated
Studies that ended in 2016 to 2025: completed or terminated
How the forecast was tested
Average miss when each year, 2020 to 2025, is forecast from the years before it
| Series | Method | Average miss | Beats same as last year |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSD | same as last year (used) | 6.4% | baseline |
| MSD | recent growth continues | 13.8% | No |
| MSD | straight-line trend | 15.4% | No |
| Peer median | same as last year (used) | 11.1% | baseline |
| Peer median | recent growth continues | 13.5% | No |
| Peer median | straight-line trend | 14.0% | No |
5 of MSD's 2,146 pipeline studies have a site in a Gulf state, the smallest share of the 12
Pipeline studies, any status, with at least one registered site in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain or Oman. A study can list more than one country, so rows do not add up to the total. A registered site may never have enrolled.
Studies with a site, by company and country
Smallest share first, so MSD is the first row
| Company | UAE | Saudi Arabia | Qatar | Kuwait | Bahrain | Oman | Studies with a Gulf site | Share of its pipeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSD | 2 | 4 | No study | No study | No study | No study | 5 | 0.23% |
| GSK | 3 | 7 | No study | No study | No study | No study | 9 | 0.29% |
| Lilly | 2 | 7 | No study | No study | No study | 1 | 7 | 0.37% |
| AbbVie | 2 | 5 | No study | No study | No study | No study | 5 | 0.42% |
| Pfizer | 1 | 15 | No study | No study | No study | 9 | 19 | 0.64% |
| BMS | 3 | 9 | 1 | No study | No study | No study | 12 | 0.72% |
| J&J | 2 | 12 | No study | No study | No study | No study | 14 | 0.75% |
| AstraZeneca | 7 | 24 | 1 | 1 | No study | No study | 31 | 1.11% |
| Sanofi | 7 | 14 | No study | No study | No study | 1 | 19 | 1.11% |
| Roche | 9 | 18 | 1 | 3 | No study | 3 | 27 | 1.40% |
| Novo Nordisk | 9 | 7 | No study | No study | No study | 3 | 17 | 1.81% |
| Novartis | 6 | 36 | No study | 1 | No study | 12 | 45 | 1.83% |
36,612 studies fetched, 33,219 kept, 3,393 set aside; 20 of 25 checks pass and 5 are reported for information
44 searches returned 37,564 rows. The search is full-text, so most of what it returns is not the company: a search for "Bristol" returns the University of Bristol. An ordered rule list decides who is who, and every set-aside study keeps its reason.
From search rows to studies in scope
Sponsor names. 1,304 distinct lead-sponsor names were resolved to 12 companies. 348 studies of Merck KGaA, a different company that owns the Merck name outside the US and Canada, are kept apart. 267 studies (11.0%) were added to MSD from companies it bought, such as Cubist, Acceleron and Prometheus; the same step adds 35.3% to AbbVie.
Therapeutic areas come from the condition names people typed, then the registry's disease tags, then the molecule's usual area. The tags alone mislead: a lung-cancer study that mentions PD-L1 is also tagged with a Parkinson disease term.
The 25 data-quality checks
Run on every build. A failing check stops the build.
| Check | Dimension | What it found | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| C01 Study ID, lead sponsor, status and type are present on every study | Completeness | 0 studies missing one | Pass |
| C02 Pipeline studies with a start date | Completeness | 99.3% (171 without) | Pass |
| C03 Active pipeline studies with a primary completion date | Completeness | 100.0% (0 without) | Pass |
| C04 Pipeline studies with a registry MeSH condition term | Completeness | 81.5% | For information |
| C05 Study IDs look like NCT plus 8 digits | Validity | 0 do not | Pass |
| C06 Every date the registry gives can be read | Validity | 0 cannot | Pass |
| C07 Start is not after primary completion when both are ACTUAL | Validity | 0 studies | Pass |
| C08 Status and phase are values the model knows | Validity | 0 unknown statuses, 0 unknown phases | Pass |
| C09 Pipeline enrollment is between 0 and 100,000 | Validity | 0 outside | Pass |
| C10 One row per study | Uniqueness | 0 duplicates | Pass |
| C11 One row per study and country | Uniqueness | 0 duplicates | Pass |
| C12 Studies loaded per search equal the total the API announced | Reconciliation | 44 of 44 searches match | Pass |
| C13 Every distinct study fetched is in scope or quarantined with a reason | Reconciliation | 36,612 fetched = 33,219 in scope + 3,393 quarantined | Pass |
| C14 MSD study count equals a fresh count from the API | Reconciliation | 2,189 in the warehouse vs 2,189 from the API (data date 2026-10-14) | Pass |
| C15 Active pipeline studies assigned a therapeutic area | Coverage | 97.0% (72 Unclassified) | Pass |
| C16 Active pipeline studies with a molecule key | Coverage | 100.0% | Pass |
| C17 Merck products in Rx Market Pulse with at least one MSD study | Coverage | 14 of 14 | For information |
| C18 Condition text and registry MeSH terms agree on the area | Coverage | 391 of 24,692 pipeline studies disagree (1.6%) | Pass |
| C19 Stopped pipeline studies whose reason fits a theme | Coverage | 64.7% (1,136 are 'Not stated' or 'Other') | For information |
| C20 No sponsor name that mentions a company falls through the rules | Harmonisation | 1,304 distinct names checked, 0 unresolved | Pass |
| C21 Merck KGaA is never counted as MSD | Harmonisation | 0 in the MSD group; 348 Merck KGaA studies set aside | Pass |
| C22 Studies MSD gains from the roll-up of acquired companies | Harmonisation | 267 of 2,433 (11.0%) | For information |
| C23 Every country spelling maps to an ISO code | Harmonisation | 0 unmapped (67 sites list no country) | Pass |
| C24 Age of the data snapshot at build time | Timeliness | 1 days (API data as of 2026-10-14) | Pass |
| C25 Active studies verified in the last 12 months | Timeliness | 2,326 of 2,416; 67 are overdue (estimated primary completion already passed) | For information |
What this is not. A registered study is not a launch plan, and counts are studies, not programmes or value. Estimated dates slip, and a primary completion date is not a results announcement. The registry lags. Only studies the company itself leads are counted, so partner-led and investigator-led studies are missed. A registered site may never have enrolled. Acquisitions registered under names outside the 44 searches are missed. Revenue is US Medicaid pharmacy spend before rebates, not company revenue, and protection dates are FDA Orange Book core dates. Ownership is as of October 2026.